8-cube takepoints

from: John O’Hagan

A couple of comments about 8-cube basic takepoints:  If the leader is 9 or more away, the takepoint (for both the leader and trailer) will tend to be even farther away from the normal 25% than the 4-cube takepoints.  Once the leader is 8 or less away, I recommend you use a Neil's number system to estimate the takepoint OTB.  Remember that if the trailer takes the 8-cube, he will automatically recube to 16.  8-cube gammon values tend to be a lot lower than for 2 or 4-cubes since winning a single game is worth 8 points and usually makes the winner of that game a big favorite in the match.

8-cube takepoints

  1. When the leader is 9 or more away.
    L:  25% + 1.5D.
    T:  25% - 1.8D.

  2. When the leader is 8 or less away.  Figure it out OTB using the Neil's numbers system described below.

8-cube gammon values

For all scores, just figure it out OTB using Neil's numbers.

Neil's numbers

This is a pretty accurate method for estimating your match winning chances (MWC) at most scores in a match.  It doesn't work too well for scores where the leader is 2a, so I recommend you memorize those on your own.  It also doesn't apply to Crawford or Post-Crawford scores. Created by Neil Kazaross.

Trailer's score Neil's number
15 a Ten 4s then two 3s
14 a Six 4.5s, three 4s, then two 3s
13 a Eight 4.5s then two 3.5s
12 a Seven 5s then two 3s
11 a 5
10 a 5.5
9 a 5.5
8 a 6
7 a 6.5
6 a 7
5 a 7.5
4 a 7.5

updated: Friday, November 19, 2010