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Position 3220, Category Priming

Roll or Double?

Black vs White

Match to 15, Score: 1 - 3

added at 4/27/2019 6:37 PM, from SluGammon

Pipcount: 121(-24) - 145(+24)


Gnu BG ID:

Comment:
This is NOT a volatile position! Even if we dance and the opponent gets the chance to prime/attack, we are still slight favourites to win this particular game! Basically, the anchor on acepoint is a terrible weakness and it will take many rolls to get over our prime... The potential backgame is not a threat, because of poor timing.

Tags: timing | on the bar |

backgammon position number 3220 - checkerplay.com

Evaluation Level: Rollout

1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply. cube decisions: XG Roller

Winning Chances:

Player: 61.50%38.34%20.43%2.73%
Opponent: 38.50%28.12%9.81%0.57%

Cubeful Equities:

No Double:+0.675-0.020
Double / Take:+0.695best
Double / Drop:+1.000+0.305

Best Cube Action: Double / Take

Cubeless Equities:

No Double:+0.391
Double:+0.876

Action Confidence:

Confidence No Double:± 0.012(+0.663 < E < +0.687)
Confidence Double:± 0.018(+0.677 < E < +0.713)

Decision Confidence:

Double Decision:9660.00%
Take Decision:10000.00%

Software: eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10. MET: Kazaross XG2